Last month I was unwell for a couple of days. It turned out to
(probably) be seasonal variation related. Unlike women who sensibly go to the
doctor when they feel ill, men do not. However, I did eventually do the
un-manly thing and go to my doctor. He prescribed some pills. In this blog I had
always talked about key statistical skills that we should try to teach
undergrads, and as I read the instructions of these pills it occurred to me
that this is a good example of where the world would be a better place if
people left university understanding statistics a bit better, and providing
useful statistical information, therefore became the norm.
Like a diligent patient, I read the instruction leaflet with the pills.
Like most instruction leaflets with pills they had an un-amusing list of
possible side effects. These side effects were helpfully listed as common, uncommon and rare.
Common ones included headache, stomach aches and feeling sick (Ok, I can handle
that), uncommon ones were dizziness, liver disease which might make my eyes
yellow, rash, sleepiness or trouble sleeping (but not both). The rare ones included
liver failure resulting in brain damage, bleeding at the lips, eyes, mouth,
nose and genitals and development of breasts in men.
Excuse me? Did it say ‘development of breasts in men’?
Yes I did.
Here’s a photo to prove it.
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Side effects
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I’ll admit that I don’t know much about human anatomy, but based on the
little I do know, it seems intuitive that my immune system, if reacting badly
to something like a drug, might overload my liver and make it explode, or give
me kidney failure. I also know that feeling sick and having flu-like symptoms
is part and parcel of your immune system kicking into action. But why on earth
would my body respond to a nasty drug by sprouting breasts? Perhaps because
having them would make me more likely to visit my doctor.
Anyway, back to the tenuous link to stats. Whenever I read this sort of
thing (which fortunately isn’t often) I usually feel that I’d rather put up
with whatever it is that’s bothering me than run the risk of, for example,
bleeding from my lips, eyes, mouth, nose and genitals or getting brain damage. I might feel differently if I
had enough information to assess the risk. What do they mean by ’uncommon’ or
‘rare’: 1/100, 1/1,000, 1/billion? Wouldn't it be nice if we could have a bit
more information, maybe even an odds ratio – that way I could know, for
example, that if I take the pill I’d be 1.2 times more likely to grow breasts
than if I don’t. That way we could better assess the likelihood of these
adverse events, which if you’re as neurotic as me, would be very helpful.
The campaign for more stats on drug instruction leaflets starts here.
