Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Mathematician helped England trap Tendulkar

London: A mathematician’s plan and modern technology have helped England keep Sachin Tendulkar’s bat quiet in the ongoing Test series against the Indian cricket team, reports here claimed.

England have relied on drawing Tendulkar outside his off-stump in the early part of his innings rather than let him get his runs on the onside and this ploy is the result of a computer simulator plan, created by team analyst Nathan Leamon.

“We feed into the simulator information about pitches and the 22 players who might play, and it plays the game a number of times and tells us likely outcomes.” Leamon was quoted as saying in a British newspaper.

England believes Tendulkar largely gets his runs on the onside until he has made 50 and they have denied him the advantage completely.

Of the 261 balls bowled to Tendulkar by England's fast bowlers till the Edgbaston Test, 254 have pitched outside his off-stump, six have been in the line of the stump and just one beyond leg-stump.

Tendulkar, world's greatest run-maker ever and on the cusp of his 100th international hundred, has so far got 34,12, 16, 56, 1, 40 and 23 from seven innings for a combined total of 182 from the series at an average of 26.00.

Leamon, nicknamed “Numbers” by England players, breaks down the target area of the pitch into 20 blocks, each 100cm x15cm, in his software and bowlers begin to get a better idea of where to aim against a particular opponent. The software records how many times a ball is pitched in each block and the resulting shot. This data is then used by England bowlers to work out the best areas to bowl to exploit each batsman’s weakness.

On the basis of this data, Leamon helps England’s coach and captain, Andy Flower and Andrew Strauss, to see clearly which players might do best to a certain ball in a certain situation. “It helps us in strategy and selection. I’ve checked the program against more than 300 Tests and it is accurate to within 4-5 %.”

Leamon apparently has chronicled every ball bowled in Test cricket for the past five years, dissecting to the last detail how each pitch and player perform in different circumstances and situations.

Leamon, a former Cambridge mathematician, does use video data but he makes greater use of Hawk-Eye ball tracking system. “It's all about asking the right questions, which can be short cut to six months of work. A lot of the old ways of looking at the technique of opponents leads to guesswork-feet position, how they hold the bat. Hawkeye enables you to come up with answers.

“We classify balls in certain ways and how opposing batsmen deal with each type. It is unusual for anyone not to have an area in which they don't have some sort of weakness. If the bowlers can hit the right block twice an over, it markedly increases the chance of success,” Leamon said. “Of all the Indian players, we have executed our plans best to Tendulkar. We have bowled brilliantly at him,” he added.

According to an insider in the Indian team, Tendulkar did work out what England was doing to him by the time the third Test match was played at Edgbaston. Tendulkar realised that he was being made to reach out to deliveries.

No rocket science behind sorting Sachin - England might claim they have sorted out Sachin Tendulkar, as The Master initially prefers onside run-making, but Sunil Gavaskar sees no great science behind such a discovery. England have drawn Tendulkar outside off-stump negating his tendency to score on the on-side

“Every batsman has his style of batting. It emerges from his grip. One with a heavy top hand, like the one Sourav Ganguly used to have, would be better on the off-side than he would be on the on-side. Tendulkar, if you notice, has a round top grip. It gives him a natural advantage on the on side. So, that becomes your preferred mode of run-making,” Gavaskar said. “It’s no rocket science. I’m glad it took the world to discover Sachin’s style after he has nearly 15,000 Test runs under his belt.”

Source: http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=TOINEW&BaseHref=TOIM/2011/08/22&PageLabel=19&EntityId=Ar01901&ViewMode=HTML

Monday, July 25, 2011

The Marketing Tea Party

Quantipulation

By Ron Shevlin

Quantipulation: The Art of Using Numbers to Create Marketing Myths and Misconceptions.

A guy named John Wanamaker is famous for something he said 100 years ago. He said:

“Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don’t know which half.”

Unfortunately, he’s wrong. I mean, if he didn’t know which half was wasted, how did he know it was half and not three-quarters or one-quarter of it?

He’s also wrong because it’s conceivable that 100% of his advertising dollars were wasted.

A century ago there were no ad ratings or measurement services. So how he could possibly know if ANY of his advertising spend was effective? It’s quite possible that any increase he saw in sales was due to exogenous factors like the weather, the economy, the competition raising prices or going out of business, or word of mouth among customers.

Ah, but hold on here a second. I guess it’s possible that 100% of his advertising spend was effective – or at least, not wasted – depending on what measure of success you use. If you don’t believe me, ask DeBeers.

Is it likely that the advertising he did had absolutely NO effect at all? Probably not. Just because someone didn’t make a bee line for the department store after seeing an ad, doesn’t mean the ad had no effect and should be considered wasted dollars. Some might have seen the ad and learned about the store, or the ad might have left others with a positive impression of the store.

Wanamaker thought half his advertising spend was wasted because he had no way to measure its effectiveness and didn’t even know what to measure.

Today’s advertisers have some measurement tools and services available to them, but none can claim to be totally accurate. And marketers are dreaming up new metrics every day, so you can be sure that no one measure is perfect, nor can we safely assume that even a group of commonly used metrics can truly give us a reliable picture of the effectiveness of advertising.

Bottom line: Any claim on what percentage of your advertising is wasted and what isn’t is just a random guess. We simply don’t know – and can’t know.

Here’s another claim to consider: Have you heard that its costs five times more to acquire a customer than to keep or retain one? How did they figure that? You could double the number of insurance, credit card, or mortgage customers you have by simply tweaking your underwriting guidelines, risk guidelines, or interest rates. No big cost associated with that.

But to retain those customers, you have to incur some big costs to keep branches open, provide call center support, and deliver service in an ever-growing number of channels. Many of the costs you incur to keep the business running are costs that help keep your customers satisfied – and, hence, keeping them as customers. There’s simply no way the cost of acquisition is five times greater than the cost of retention.

But, wait, that’s not right either. Because all those costs you incur to retain your customers help to make your company the great company that it is. It’s what you’ve built your reputation upon. And without that reputation you couldn’t retain OR attract customers.

Bottom line: There’s simply no way to accurately calculate the cost of acquisition or retention. It involves making too many judgments and decisions on which activities contribute to acquisition and retention. It can’t be done.

These claims – that half of advertising is wasted, or that acquisition costs are five times greater than retention costs – are examples of what I call Quantipulation:

The art and act of using unverifiable math and statistics to convince people of what you believe to be true.

The examples I just gave are just two examples of this widespread practice. In fact, the incidence of quantipulation has grown by 1273% compounded annually since 2003. And I have the math to prove it:


What’s driving this growth in quantipulative activity?

The false legitimacy that quantipulation provides gives quantipulators confirmation that the things they WANT to believe are really true.

In addition, there are many people who want to lay claim to having the secret sauce for marketing success, and sadly, many people who want that special sauce. Quantipulation provides the “scientific” proof that their sauce tastes best.

There are at a lot different flavours of this special sauce that people quantipulate about, especially about customer loyalty, influence, performance metrics and ROI.

Source: http://marketingteaparty.com/2011/07/25/quantipulation/